Handicapping

Tag: Betting

Sports betting isn’t all fun and games. You have to do your homework - and park your emotions and team loyalties at the door. Successful sports betting involves handicapping, or gathering data as diverse as weather forecasts and player statistics to determine the probability of a game’s outcome.
There are a few unofficial schools of handicapping that focus on the following:

  • Fundamentals: A fundamentals handicapper focuses on one team’s strengths against another team’s weaknesses. For example, this handicapper may notice that Colorado’s receivers are all tall and that Nebraska’s cornerbacks are unusually short, creating an obscure but important mismatch that Colorado could convert into a point-spread victory.
  • Statistics: Statistics handicappers dig into numbers to find advantages that other bettors may not see. They may track teams with the best rebounding, or they may identify statistical factors that lead to a pitcher’s success. They may even invent and track their own unique statistical measurements to evaluate teams or players.
  • Technical: Technicians are all about trends. Like statistics handicappers, they share a fascination with numbers, but trends handicappers are trying to identify general situations where teams tend to do well or not. A technical handicapper looks through reams of past game logs and finds indicators that a team will outperform or perform poorly against the spread.

Many handicappers are a combination of all three types, blending their own unique perspective with methods borrowed from other handicappers. If you’re a smart handicapper, you can consistently beat the house. One reason for your success is that you can choose which teams to bet or pass on, which gives you much more control than the house has.

Handicapping and overcoming the house edge is hard work. But it can be done if you’re disciplined and rely on objective material instead of getting sentimental and betting with your heart. The following strategic tips can help you settle into a winner’s betting stride:

  • Avoid the exotics. Bettors wagered millions on football parlays last year, and a large chunk of that stayed in Nevada. Don’t make sucker bets.
  • Pick your sport. Being an expert in several sports is hard, if not impossible. Pick one sport and only bet a few quality games at a time. Or increase your odds of success by picking one conference. You just may become the most informed follower of some small college leagues and direct that knowledge into betting success.
  • Turn the page. The only way to be successful in gambling is to quickly get over losses. Don’t stew. Pick yourself up and move on.
  • Don’t chase your losses. If you have a bad day or two, don’t start chasing your losses by betting more and hoping that you’ll eventually start to win. You may find yourself heading for even harder times.
  • Ignore the tout services. These so-called experts sell you sure-fire picks for upcoming games. The truth is that very few of these companies surpass the break-even point of 52.4 percent, let alone show a reasonable profit. To compensate for the poor returns, some companies use bait-and-switch tactics (their services aren’t really free, as advertised) or other unscrupulous practices to reel you in.
  • Disregard trends. How teams have done on the road, on turf, on grass, or on bye weeks after Monday-night football games with a full moon is usually worthless information. An insufficient sampling exists of these trends to make any mathematical analysis. And team personnel changes so frequently today that how the Bears did over the last four years may have little reflection on this season.
  • Lock onto key numbers. Pay attention to key numbers, especially in football. Two examples are the numbers 3 and 7 in point spreads. A field goal or a touchdown decides many games. So before you bet, look around and see if you can get 4 or 8 points in a different casino for the same game.
  • Shop for the best line. Point spreads vary among casinos and online sports books. Additionally, one site may offer lower juice (less of a vig). These little differences can add up to big money over a long season, so never be satisfied with the first number you see.
  • Manage your money. Make sure you have enough money to last through the inevitable negative swings of a long season - which translates into at least 50 times the maximum amount you bet per game.
  • Don’t overreact. Although players’ injuries sometimes affect the expected outcome of a game, unless the injury is to an all-pro quarterback, key pitcher, or basketball superstar, the injuries don’t have as much impact on the game as you may think. The benchwarmers at the professional level are very capable, and in some sports you find little difference between starters and subs.
  • Be a contrarian. One of the simplest and most powerful strategies is to bet on the underdogs. Because of the public’s fascination with the marquee teams, frequently a small edge exists in taking the points and betting on the weaker teams.